SOUTHERN
JAGUARSSOU
4-8 | Road
55
ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
9-3 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
JAGUARS
--
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-47.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +47.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILL -47.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
SOU By 1-7 points
0.0%
SOU By 8-14 points
0.0%
ILL By 1-7 points
0.0%
ILL By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern
53
SOUTHERN
Illinois
100
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Southern
60
SOUTHERN
Illinois
85
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Fighting Illini
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini (-32.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -47.0
D
Sim
Fighting Illini (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 29, 2025
SOU @ ILL
55 - 90
Nov 19, 2023
SOU @ ILL
60 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+68.3% more
Illinois: 5.7
vs
Southern: 3.4
Assists (L5)
+42.9% more
Illinois: 16.5
vs
Southern: 11.5
Rebounding (L5)
+12.6% more
Illinois: 38.6
vs
Southern: 34.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.1%
Illinois: 77.7%
vs
Southern: 65.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SOU Score
53.0
55
ILL Score
100.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.9 / 33.9
41.0 / 21.0
Assists
16.5 / 11.5
22.0 / 9.0
Blocks
5.7 / 3.4
7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.0 / 42.9
52.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
77.7 / 65.6
89.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
38.6 / 34.2
45.0 / 26.0
Steals
2.7 / 6.9
3.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 12.9
14.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SOU
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.7
ATS +/-: -1.6
ILL
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SOU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 1.7
ATS +/-: -1.6
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
SOU
ILL
SOU
ML
65%
24-13
67%
22-11
57%
20-15
70%
21-9
ATS
70%
26-11
64%
21-12
57%
20-15
70%
21-9
TTL
57%
21-16
42%
14-19
100%
35-0
100%
30-0
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