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BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

19-14-4  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 8:00 PM ET
Enterprise Center
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

BLUESSTL

15-16-8  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Alex Lyon
GOALTENDER

Alex Lyon

#34 | Goaltender
@
Joel Hofer
GOALTENDER

Joel Hofer

#30 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Alex Lyon None-None 2.02 0.889 --
Joel Hofer None-None 3.03 0.909 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.02 Ldr GAA 3.03
0.889 Save % Ldr 0.909
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
📊
BLUES
0%
SABRES --
BLUES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
SabresBUF (-3.5) 0 BluesSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sabres Cover

30.9%

Blues Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

BUF By 1 goal

12.1%

BUF By 2-3 goals

9.3%

STL By 1 goal

19.7%

STL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BUFFALO
3
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
2
BUFFALO
3
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blues Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blues Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blues (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Blues (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Push
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 29, 2025 BUF @ STL 4 - 2
Nov 6, 2025 STL @ BUF 3 - 0
Dec 29, 2024 BUF @ STL 4 - 2
Nov 14, 2024 STL @ BUF 3 - 4
Feb 10, 2024 STL @ BUF 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +28.5% more
St. Louis: 22.8 vs Buffalo: 17.8
Power Play % (L5) +14.1%
St. Louis: 20.0% vs Buffalo: 5.9%
Faceoff % (L5) +10.2%
St. Louis: 53.3% vs Buffalo: 43.1%
Takeaways (L5) +29.3% more
Buffalo: 6.2 vs St. Louis: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 2.0 4
STL Score 3.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.2 / 16.1 18.0 / 11.0
Faceoff % 53.3 / 43.1 44.4 / 55.6
Hits 22.8 / 17.8 27.0 / 18.0
Power Play % 1999.0 / 589.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 23.2 / 28.2 18.0 / 34.0
Takeaways 4.4 / 6.2 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
64%MONEY36%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
BUF
STL
BUF
ML
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
TTL
50% 1-1-1
33% 1-2
50% 1-1-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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