TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
17-15-5 | Road
2
DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
22-14-3 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Moritz Seider
#53 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Moritz Seider | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
RED WINGS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
RED WINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1 goal
17.5%
TOR By 2-3 goals
37.2%
DET By 1 goal
6.6%
DET By 2-3 goals
3.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Detroit
2
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Wings
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Red Wings (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
DET @ TOR
2 - 1
Dec 28, 2025
TOR @ DET
2 - 3
Oct 13, 2025
DET @ TOR
3 - 2
Oct 11, 2025
TOR @ DET
3 - 6
Oct 4, 2025
TOR @ DET
5 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+33.8% more
Toronto: 25.6
vs
Detroit: 16.9
Shots on Goal (L5)
+19.4% more
Toronto: 29.7
vs
Detroit: 23.9
Takeaways (L5)
+17.3% more
Toronto: 5.1
vs
Detroit: 4.2
Blocked Shots (L5)
+60.1% more
Detroit: 17.2
vs
Toronto: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.0
2
DET Score
2.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.2 / 10.7
14.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
52.7 / 53.8
53.3 / 46.7
Hits
16.9 / 25.6
12.0 / 23.0
Power Play %
50.0 / 25.1
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
23.9 / 29.7
36.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
4.2 / 5.1
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TOR
DET
TOR
ML
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
TTL
0%
0-3
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
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