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PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

16-13  |  Road

104
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 3:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

26-5  |  Home

129
AI Model Win Probability
76ERS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
76ERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Oklahoma City)
76ersPHI (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

76ers Cover

46.0%

Thunder Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

PHI By 1-7 points

24.3%

PHI By 8-14 points

13.7%

OKC By 1-7 points

26.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
106
PHILADELPHIA
107
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
PHILADELPHIA
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+15) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u226.0 Loss
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Sim u226.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 23, 2026 OKC @ PHI 123 - 103
Dec 28, 2025 PHI @ OKC 104 - 129
Mar 19, 2025 PHI @ OKC 100 - 133
Jan 14, 2025 OKC @ PHI 118 - 102
Apr 2, 2024 OKC @ PHI 105 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
Oklahoma City: 45.8% vs Philadelphia: 40.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Oklahoma City: 33.2% vs Philadelphia: 30.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.3%
Philadelphia: 85.1% vs Oklahoma City: 79.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 106.0 104
OKC Score 107.0 129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 30.8 36.0 / 40.0
Assists 22.7 / 21.4 27.0 / 21.0
Blocks 4.7 / 4.8 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 40.7 57.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 79.7 / 85.1 76.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 44.5 / 45.4 35.0 / 38.0
Steals 8.8 / 9.0 12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 11.8 14.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
PHI
OKC
PHI
ML
70% 80-34
63% 69-40
48% 46-49
48% 45-48
ATS
73% 83-30-1
65% 71-38
48% 46-49
48% 45-48
TTL
67% 76-38
55% 60-49
100% 95-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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