Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Raptors GS @ TOR

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

16-15  |  Road

127
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 3:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

18-14  |  Home

141
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
RAPTORS
100%
WARRIORS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
204.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

34.5%

Raptors Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOR +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

GS By 1-7 points

27.4%

GS By 8-14 points

21.6%

TOR By 1-7 points

20.1%

TOR By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
104
GOLDEN STATE
100
TORONTO
Simulated Score
112
GOLDEN STATE
115
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raptors (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u228.0 Loss
Proj Total: 204.0
D
Sim u228.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 20, 2026 TOR @ GS 145 - 127
Dec 28, 2025 GS @ TOR 127 - 141
Mar 20, 2025 TOR @ GS 114 - 117
Jan 13, 2025 GS @ TOR 101 - 104
Mar 1, 2024 GS @ TOR 120 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +16.1% more
Golden State: 47.7 vs Toronto: 40.0
Assists (L5) +12.1% more
Golden State: 31.1 vs Toronto: 27.3
Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Golden State: 46.2% vs Toronto: 44.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.9%
Toronto: 84.8% vs Golden State: 82.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 104.0 127
TOR Score 100.0 141
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.9 / 32.2 31.0 / 36.0
Assists 27.3 / 31.1 40.0 / 25.0
Blocks 5.0 / 4.8 2.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 46.2 51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 84.8 / 82.0 89.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 40.0 / 47.7 55.0 / 42.0
Steals 8.8 / 9.1 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 14.7 15.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
GS
TOR
GS
ML
55% 57-47
55% 95-79
55% 48-39
58% 49-35
ATS
61% 62-40-2
58% 101-73
55% 48-39
58% 49-35
TTL
60% 62-42
77% 134-40
100% 87-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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