SANTA CLARA
BRONCOSSCU
9-4 | Road
102
OREGON STATE
BEAVERSORST
7-6 | Home
64
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
100%
BEAVERS
0%
BRONCOS
--
BEAVERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Oregon State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORST -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)
SCU By 1-7 points
8.0%
SCU By 8-14 points
2.2%
ORST By 1-7 points
20.1%
ORST By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Santa Clara
73
SANTA CLARA
Oregon State
85
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
Santa Clara
68
SANTA CLARA
Oregon State
73
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Beavers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Beavers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Beavers (+6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Beavers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
ORST @ SCU
72 - 93
Dec 28, 2025
SCU @ ORST
102 - 64
Jan 25, 2025
SCU @ ORST
69 - 83
Jan 9, 2025
ORST @ SCU
81 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+50.4% more
Oregon State: 4.2
vs
Santa Clara: 2.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.1%
Oregon State: 81.4%
vs
Santa Clara: 72.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Oregon State: 34.1%
vs
Santa Clara: 30.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Oregon State: 44.8%
vs
Santa Clara: 42.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SCU Score
73.0
102
ORST Score
85.0
64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.1 / 30.9
42.0 / 56.0
Assists
14.9 / 17.3
11.0 / 21.0
Blocks
4.2 / 2.8
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 42.1
37.0 / 64.0
Free Throw %
81.4 / 72.3
63.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
33.3 / 33.2
22.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.5 / 6.8
4.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 13.3
16.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SCU
Advantage
26-9-0
(74.3%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +2.6
ORST
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SCU
Advantage
17-16-1
(51.5%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +2.6
ORST
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SCU
20-13-1
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +4.0
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
SCU
ORST
SCU
ML
45%
15-18
44%
15-19
59%
19-13
73%
22-8
ATS
48%
16-17
53%
18-16
59%
19-13
74%
23-8
TTL
55%
18-15
47%
16-18
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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