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CAL STATE FULLERTON

TITANSCSUF

5-8  |  Road

63
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 3:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Dallas)
View Odds Details →

SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

10-2  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
100%
📊
MUSTANGS
0%
TITANS --
MUSTANGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (SMU)
TitansCSUF (-3.5) 0 MustangsSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Titans Cover

15.9%

Mustangs Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

CSUF By 1-7 points

10.7%

CSUF By 8-14 points

3.3%

SMU By 1-7 points

23.0%

SMU By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
80
CAL STATE FULLERTON
90
SMU
Simulated Score
63
CAL STATE FULLERTON
78
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mustangs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mustangs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mustangs (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Mustangs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u170.5 Loss
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u170.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 CSUF @ SMU 63 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +52.9% more
SMU: 3.4 vs Cal State Fullerton: 2.2
Free Throw % (L5) +10.3%
SMU: 74.9% vs Cal State Fullerton: 64.6%
Steals (L5) +10.1% more
Cal State Fullerton: 8.5 vs SMU: 7.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.4%
Cal State Fullerton: 39.1% vs SMU: 30.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSUF Score 80.0 63
SMU Score 90.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.7 / 39.1 45.0 / 25.0
Assists 18.4 / 18.6 30.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.2 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 51.2 / 51.1 53.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 74.9 / 64.6 74.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 37.4 / 37.9 49.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.6 / 8.5 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 12.2 11.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUF
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +3.0
SMU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUF Advantage
19-11-2 (63.3%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +3.0
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUF
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: +0.6
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
CSUF
SMU
CSUF
ML
59% 20-14
68% 23-11
73% 24-9
76% 26-8
ATS
62% 21-13
68% 23-11
73% 24-9
76% 26-8
TTL
56% 19-15
59% 20-14
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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