Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Matadors @ Cardinal CSUN @ STAN

CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE

MATADORSCSUN

8-5  |  Road

80
FINAL
Sat, Dec 27 • 8:00 PM ET
Maples Pavilion
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

CARDINALSTAN

10-2  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
MATADORS
100%
📊
CARDINAL
0%
MATADORS --
CARDINAL --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
195.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
STANFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Stanford)
MatadorsCSUN (-3.5) 0 CardinalSTAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Matadors Cover

0.1%

Cardinal Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STAN -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STAN)

CSUN By 1-7 points

0.1%

CSUN By 8-14 points

0.0%

STAN By 1-7 points

0.8%

STAN By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
82
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
113
STANFORD
Simulated Score
62
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
78
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinal Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinal Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinal (-16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Cardinal (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o160.5 Win
Proj Total: 195.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 27, 2025 CSUN @ STAN 80 - 88
Mar 18, 2025 CSUN @ STAN 70 - 87
Nov 6, 2023 CSUN @ STAN 79 - 88
Dec 15, 2020 STAN @ CSUN 82 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +17.5% more
Stanford: 9.7 vs Cal State Northridge: 8.3
Turnovers (L5) +12.4% more
Stanford: 12.0 vs Cal State Northridge: 10.7
Blocks (L5) +39.6% more
Cal State Northridge: 3.9 vs Stanford: 2.3
Assists (L5) +38.3% more
Cal State Northridge: 20.5 vs Stanford: 12.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSUN Score 82.0 80
STAN Score 113.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 34.9 41.0 / 47.0
Assists 12.7 / 20.5 16.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.9 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 47.0 48.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 71.1 / 71.0 71.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 45.1 33.0 / 30.0
Steals 9.7 / 8.3 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 10.7 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUN
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
STAN Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUN
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
STAN Advantage
16-16-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +2.4
STAN
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
CSUN
STAN
CSUN
ML
48% 16-17
58% 19-14
50% 16-16
67% 22-11
ATS
48% 16-17
58% 19-14
50% 16-16
67% 22-11
TTL
55% 18-15
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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