OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
18-13-5 | Road
5
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
16-15-5 | Home
7
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 8.74 | 0.714 | -- |
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
8.74
GAA
--
0.714
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
SENATORS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
OTT By 1 goal
17.5%
OTT By 2-3 goals
37.2%
TOR By 1 goal
6.6%
TOR By 2-3 goals
3.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Toronto
1
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 3, 2026
OTT @ TOR
3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
TOR @ OTT
1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026
TOR @ OTT
2 - 5
Feb 28, 2026
OTT @ TOR
5 - 2
Dec 27, 2025
OTT @ TOR
5 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+33.6%
Ottawa: 37.9%
vs
Toronto: 4.3%
Takeaways (L5)
+10.1% more
Ottawa: 5.2
vs
Toronto: 4.7
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.6%
Toronto: 58.0%
vs
Ottawa: 53.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
3.0
5
TOR Score
1.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.6 / 12.6
7.0 / 6.0
Faceoff %
58.0 / 53.4
45.5 / 54.5
Hits
22.3 / 22.6
32.0 / 30.0
Power Play %
4.3 / 37.9
66.7 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
28.0 / 28.2
33.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
4.7 / 5.2
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
OTT
TOR
OTT
ML
60%
3-2
25%
1-3
60%
3-2
50%
2-2
ATS
0%
0-5
25%
1-3
80%
4-1
75%
3-1
TTL
80%
4-1
50%
2-2
60%
3-2
50%
2-2
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