Home / NFL Projections NFL / Eagles @ Bills PHI @ BUF

PHILADELPHIA

EAGLESPHI

10-5  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 4:25 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

11-4  |  Home

12
Key Game
AJ Epenesa
KEY GAME

AJ Epenesa

#57 | Defensive End
@
Keleki Latu
KEY GAME

Keleki Latu

#83 | Tight End
Player
AJ Epenesa None-None
Keleki Latu None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
BILLS
0%
EAGLES --
BILLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Buffalo)
EaglesPHI (-3.5) 0 BillsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

30.9%

Bills Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUF -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

PHI By 1-6 points

12.9%

PHI By 7-13 points

9.6%

BUF By 1-6 points

16.5%

BUF By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
17
PHILADELPHIA
24
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
24
PHILADELPHIA
27
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bills Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bills Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bills (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Bills (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u45.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim u45.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 PHI @ BUF 13 - 12
Nov 26, 2023 BUF @ PHI 34 - 37
Oct 27, 2019 PHI @ BUF 31 - 13
Dec 13, 2015 BUF @ PHI 20 - 23
Oct 9, 2011 PHI @ BUF 24 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.6% more
Buffalo: 174.6 vs Philadelphia: 136.9
Total Yards (L5) +9.3% more
Buffalo: 385.2 vs Philadelphia: 352.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 17.0 13
BUF Score 24.0 12
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: -0.1
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
PHI
BUF
PHI
ML
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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