Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Highlanders @ Bruins UCR @ UCLA

UC RIVERSIDE

HIGHLANDERSUCR

6-7  |  Road

65
FINAL
Tue, Dec 23 • 4:00 PM ET
Pauley Pavilion
View Odds Details →

UCLA

BRUINSUCLA

9-3  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
100%
📊
BRUINS
0%
HIGHLANDERS --
BRUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
UCLA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (UCLA)
HighlandersUCR (-3.5) 0 BruinsUCLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Highlanders Cover

24.2%

Bruins Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCLA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCLA)

UCR By 1-7 points

15.3%

UCR By 8-14 points

5.8%

UCLA By 1-7 points

26.2%

UCLA By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
84
UC RIVERSIDE
91
UCLA
Simulated Score
62
UC RIVERSIDE
78
UCLA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bruins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bruins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bruins (+24.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Bruins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Win
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 23, 2025 UCR @ UCLA 65 - 97
Nov 30, 2023 UCR @ UCLA 65 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +135.2% more
UCLA: 7.9 vs UC Riverside: 3.4
Assists (L5) +14.1% more
UCLA: 17.4 vs UC Riverside: 15.2
Free Throw % (L5) +11.1%
UCLA: 81.9% vs UC Riverside: 70.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.8%
UCLA: 45.6% vs UC Riverside: 37.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCR Score 84.0 65
UCLA Score 91.0 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 45.6 / 37.9 33.0 / 20.0
Assists 17.4 / 15.2 16.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.3 / 4.6 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.9 / 47.0 50.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 81.9 / 70.8 85.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 28.9 / 33.7 37.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.9 / 3.4 12.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.8 / 11.5 10.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCR
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
UCLA Advantage
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCR Advantage
14-14-2 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
UCLA
17-18-1 (48.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.3
UCLA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
UCR
UCLA
UCR
ML
67% 24-12
66% 21-11
76% 25-8
75% 24-8
ATS
61% 22-14
59% 19-13
76% 25-8
75% 24-8
TTL
61% 22-14
66% 21-11
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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