Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Bears LIN @ MOST

LINDENWOOD

LIONSLIN

8-4  |  Road

65
FINAL
Tue, Dec 23 • 3:00 PM ET
Great Southern Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

5-5  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
LIONS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
LINDENWOOD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Lindenwood)
LionsLIN (-3.5) 0 BearsMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

99.7%

Bears Cover

0.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LIN -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIN)

LIN By 1-7 points

2.2%

LIN By 8-14 points

8.0%

MOST By 1-7 points

0.3%

MOST By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
95
LINDENWOOD
68
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
65
LINDENWOOD
78
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lions (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 23, 2025 LIN @ MOST 65 - 70
Dec 19, 2023 LIN @ MOST 57 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +37.7% more
Lindenwood: 19.8 vs Missouri State: 12.3
Steals (L5) +29.2% more
Lindenwood: 8.8 vs Missouri State: 6.2
Rebounding (L5) +28.9% more
Lindenwood: 45.1 vs Missouri State: 32.1
Blocks (L5) +23.6% more
Lindenwood: 5.3 vs Missouri State: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIN Score 95.0 65
MOST Score 68.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.1 / 41.5 22.0 / 14.0
Assists 12.3 / 19.8 11.0 / 7.0
Blocks 4.1 / 5.3 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 52.9 42.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 70.7 / 69.5 52.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 45.1 44.0 / 41.0
Steals 6.2 / 8.8 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 13.5 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIN Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIN
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LIN
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: -0.8
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
LIN
MOST
LIN
ML
65% 22-12
47% 15-17
62% 21-13
61% 19-12
ATS
68% 23-11
34% 11-21
62% 21-13
61% 19-12
TTL
44% 15-19
53% 17-15
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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