MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
11-18 | Road
111
INDIANA
PACERSIND
6-23 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
0%
PACERS
100%
BUCKS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIL -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-7 points
27.4%
MIL By 8-14 points
21.6%
IND By 1-7 points
20.1%
IND By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
117
MILWAUKEE
Indiana
113
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
117
MILWAUKEE
Indiana
122
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bucks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o218.5
Loss
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim
u218.5
Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
IND @ MIL
123 - 134
Feb 6, 2026
IND @ MIL
99 - 105
Dec 23, 2025
MIL @ IND
111 - 94
Nov 3, 2025
MIL @ IND
117 - 115
Apr 29, 2025
MIL @ IND
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+26.1% more
Milwaukee: 17.0
vs
Indiana: 12.6
Steals (L5)
+20.7% more
Milwaukee: 7.6
vs
Indiana: 6.1
Assists (L5)
+11.1% more
Milwaukee: 25.5
vs
Indiana: 22.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
Milwaukee: 34.4%
vs
Indiana: 29.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
117.0
111
IND Score
113.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.8 / 34.4
26.0 / 33.0
Assists
22.6 / 25.5
20.0 / 20.0
Blocks
4.9 / 2.6
3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
42.0 / 44.2
41.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
82.6 / 81.4
61.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
41.3 / 42.3
40.0 / 48.0
Steals
6.1 / 7.6
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 17.0
12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
MIL
IND
MIL
ML
48%
47-50
64%
61-35
54%
45-38
60%
49-32
ATS
59%
57-40
68%
65-31
54%
45-38
60%
49-32
TTL
54%
52-45
55%
53-43
100%
83-0
100%
81-0
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