PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
15-11-9 | Road
3
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
15-15-5 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Nick Robertson
#14 | Left Wing@
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Robertson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
PENGUINS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
PIT By 1 goal
19.7%
PIT By 2-3 goals
29.6%
TOR By 1 goal
12.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Penguins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 23, 2025
PIT @ TOR
3 - 6
Nov 29, 2025
TOR @ PIT
7 - 2
Nov 3, 2025
PIT @ TOR
3 - 4
Mar 2, 2025
TOR @ PIT
6 - 5
Dec 7, 2024
TOR @ PIT
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+15.8%
Pittsburgh: 22.3%
vs
Toronto: 6.5%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+10.8% more
Pittsburgh: 29.7
vs
Toronto: 26.5
Faceoff % (L5)
+9.0%
Toronto: 57.7%
vs
Pittsburgh: 48.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.0
3
TOR Score
2.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.9 / 12.6
14.0 / 7.0
Faceoff %
57.7 / 48.7
58.6 / 41.4
Hits
24.0 / 24.7
19.0 / 16.0
Power Play %
645.0 / 2226.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.5 / 29.7
31.0 / 32.0
Takeaways
4.0 / 4.3
6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
PIT
TOR
PIT
ML
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
ATS
0%
0-4
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
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