ORLANDO
MAGICORL
16-12 | Road
97
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
14-15 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
100%
WARRIORS
0%
MAGIC
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
197.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
ORL By 1-7 points
24.3%
ORL By 8-14 points
13.7%
GS By 1-7 points
26.2%
GS By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Orlando
98
ORLANDO
Golden State
99
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Orlando
108
ORLANDO
Golden State
112
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Warriors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warriors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Warriors (+6)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Warriors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 197.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 22, 2025
ORL @ GS
97 - 120
Nov 18, 2025
GS @ ORL
113 - 121
Feb 27, 2025
GS @ ORL
121 - 115
Feb 3, 2025
ORL @ GS
99 - 104
Mar 27, 2024
GS @ ORL
101 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+44.8% more
Golden State: 18.4
vs
Orlando: 12.7
Steals (L5)
+29.0% more
Golden State: 9.6
vs
Orlando: 7.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.0%
Golden State: 79.9%
vs
Orlando: 71.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
Golden State: 36.5%
vs
Orlando: 32.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORL Score
98.0
97
GS Score
99.0
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.5 / 32.7
30.0 / 26.0
Assists
28.7 / 29.3
33.0 / 21.0
Blocks
4.7 / 6.3
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 47.1
52.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
79.9 / 71.9
71.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
47.1 / 46.9
47.0 / 48.0
Steals
9.6 / 7.5
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
18.4 / 12.7
13.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
Advantage
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
ORL
GS
ORL
ML
55%
95-79
61%
65-42
58%
49-35
56%
51-40
ATS
58%
101-73
64%
68-38-1
58%
49-35
56%
51-40
TTL
77%
134-40
57%
61-46
100%
84-0
100%
91-0
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