JACKSONVILLE
DOLPHINSJAX
5-7 | Road
63
FLORIDA STATE
SEMINOLESFSU
6-6 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
100%
SEMINOLES
0%
DOLPHINS
--
SEMINOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-43.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +43.0 points (Florida State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FSU -43.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)
JAX By 1-7 points
0.0%
JAX By 8-14 points
0.0%
FSU By 1-7 points
0.0%
FSU By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Jacksonville
55
JACKSONVILLE
Florida State
98
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
Jacksonville
65
JACKSONVILLE
Florida State
78
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Seminoles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seminoles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Seminoles (-26.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -43.0
D
Sim
Seminoles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 22, 2025
JAX @ FSU
63 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+53.4% more
Florida State: 9.8
vs
Jacksonville: 6.4
Blocks (L5)
+47.2% more
Florida State: 3.7
vs
Jacksonville: 2.5
Rebounding (L5)
+12.0% more
Florida State: 38.0
vs
Jacksonville: 33.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.9%
Jacksonville: 39.0%
vs
Florida State: 30.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
JAX Score
55.0
63
FSU Score
98.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.1 / 39.0
33.0 / 16.0
Assists
14.7 / 13.7
19.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.7 / 2.5
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
41.4 / 45.2
46.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
73.1 / 73.8
77.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
38.0 / 33.9
44.0 / 28.0
Steals
9.8 / 6.4
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 13.6
8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-: -1.3
FSU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-: -1.3
FSU
Advantage
19-13-1
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: +1.4
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
JAX
FSU
JAX
ML
64%
21-12
74%
23-8
59%
19-13
60%
18-12
ATS
55%
18-15
65%
20-11
59%
19-13
61%
19-12
TTL
48%
16-17
65%
20-11
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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