Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hornets @ Tigers ALST @ MEM

ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

3-8  |  Road

67
FINAL
Mon, Dec 22 • 8:00 PM ET
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View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

TIGERSMEM

4-7  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
HORNETS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
188.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Memphis)
HornetsALST (-3.5) 0 TigersMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

27.4%

Tigers Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

ALST By 1-7 points

16.9%

ALST By 8-14 points

6.8%

MEM By 1-7 points

26.8%

MEM By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
91
ALABAMA STATE
97
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
62
ALABAMA STATE
88
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 188.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 22, 2025 ALST @ MEM 67 - 88
Nov 17, 2023 ALST @ MEM 75 - 92
Dec 21, 2022 ALST @ MEM 61 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +73.6% more
Memphis: 9.5 vs Alabama State: 5.5
Blocks (L5) +52.7% more
Memphis: 4.0 vs Alabama State: 2.6
Turnovers (L5) +42.0% more
Memphis: 15.8 vs Alabama State: 11.1
Rebounding (L5) +17.7% more
Memphis: 39.7 vs Alabama State: 33.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALST Score 91.0 67
MEM Score 97.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.9 / 34.6 43.0 / 28.0
Assists 11.6 / 10.9 20.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.0 / 2.6 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 39.3 / 40.3 51.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 72.0 / 65.3 61.0 / 59.0
Rebounding 39.7 / 33.8 40.0 / 37.0
Steals 9.5 / 5.5 13.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 11.1 18.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
MEM Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
MEM Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
ALST
MEM
ALST
ML
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
68% 21-10
76% 19-6
ATS
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
68% 21-10
76% 19-6
TTL
66% 21-11
52% 16-15
100% 31-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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