Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pirates @ Tar Heels ECU @ UNC

EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

5-7  |  Road

51
FINAL
Mon, Dec 22 • 8:00 PM ET
Dean E. Smith Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

11-1  |  Home

99
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
📊
TAR HEELS
0%
PIRATES --
TAR HEELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
109.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (North Carolina)
PiratesECU (-3.5) 0 Tar HeelsUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

9.7%

Tar Heels Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

ECU By 1-7 points

6.8%

ECU By 8-14 points

1.7%

UNC By 1-7 points

18.6%

UNC By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
48
EAST CAROLINA
61
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
65
EAST CAROLINA
82
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tar Heels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels (+25.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Tar Heels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 109.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 22, 2025 ECU @ UNC 51 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +61.9% more
North Carolina: 18.5 vs East Carolina: 11.4
Rebounding (L5) +16.4% more
North Carolina: 38.6 vs East Carolina: 33.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
North Carolina: 32.6% vs East Carolina: 27.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
North Carolina: 47.6% vs East Carolina: 44.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ECU Score 48.0 51
UNC Score 61.0 99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 27.8 48.0 / 9.0
Assists 18.5 / 11.4 20.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.7 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.6 / 44.2 54.0 / 26.0
Free Throw % 62.2 / 73.5 63.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 38.6 / 33.2 48.0 / 42.0
Steals 3.9 / 8.4 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 7.9 / 12.5 12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
ECU
UNC
ECU
ML
76% 25-8
55% 17-14
69% 22-10
55% 17-14
ATS
73% 24-9
52% 16-15
69% 22-10
55% 17-14
TTL
55% 18-15
61% 19-12
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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