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USC

USCUSC

9-3  |  Road

27
FINAL
Tue, Dec 30 • 9:00 PM ET
Alamodome
View Odds Details →

TCU

TCUTCU

8-4  |  Home

30
Key Game
Ryon Sayeri
KEY GAME

Ryon Sayeri

#48 | Punter
@
Kyle Lemmermann
KEY GAME

Kyle Lemmermann

#34 | Place kicker
Player
Ryon Sayeri None-None
Kyle Lemmermann None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
USC
100%
📊
TCU
0%
USC --
TCU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
TCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (TCU)
USCUSC (-3.5) 0 TCUTCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

USC Cover

30.9%

TCU Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TCU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)

USC By 1-6 points

12.9%

USC By 7-13 points

9.6%

TCU By 1-6 points

16.5%

TCU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24
USC
31
TCU
Simulated Score
31
USC
34
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI TCU Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim TCU Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI TCU (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim TCU (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Sim o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 30, 2025 USC @ TCU 27 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +80.0% more
TCU: 1.7 vs USC: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.7% more
TCU: 160.0 vs USC: 122.4
Total Yards (L5) +10.3% more
TCU: 440.4 vs USC: 399.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
USC: 0.5 vs TCU: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USC Score 24.0 27
TCU Score 31.0 30
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: -7.3
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: -7.3
TCU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.7
TCU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -12.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
USC
TCU
USC
ML
60% 3-2
100% 6-0
60% 3-2
83% 5-1
ATS
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
20% 1-4
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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