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ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

8-4  |  Road

39
FINAL
Wed, Dec 31 • 2:00 PM ET
Sun Bowl
View Odds Details →

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

8-5  |  Home

42
Key Game
C.J. Fite
KEY GAME

C.J. Fite

#99 | Defensive Lineman
@
Kade Reynoldson
KEY GAME

Kade Reynoldson

#41 | Punter
Player
C.J. Fite None-None
Kade Reynoldson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA ST
100%
📊
DUKE
0%
ARIZONA ST --
DUKE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
66.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Duke)
Arizona StASU (-3.5) 0 DukeDUKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona St Cover

23.8%

Duke Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DUKE -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

ASU By 1-6 points

10.7%

ASU By 7-13 points

7.3%

DUKE By 1-6 points

15.3%

DUKE By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
28
ARIZONA STATE
38
DUKE
Simulated Score
28
ARIZONA STATE
31
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Duke Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Duke Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Duke (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Sim Duke (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 66.0
B
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 31, 2025 ASU @ DUKE 39 - 42
Dec 27, 2014 ASU @ DUKE 36 - 31
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +15.1% more
Duke: 20.7 vs Arizona State: 18.0
Turnovers (L5) +77.5% more
Arizona State: 3.1 vs Duke: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.7% more
Arizona State: 185.6 vs Duke: 126.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 28.0 39
DUKE Score 38.0 42
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +13.8
DUKE
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -6.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
ASU
DUKE
ASU
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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