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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

15-14-5  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 7:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

24-7-5  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Troy Stecher
GOALTENDER

Troy Stecher

#28 | Defense
@
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Troy Stecher None-None -- -- --
Jake Oettinger None-None 1.00 0.964 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 1.00
-- Save % 0.964
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
📊
STARS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS --
STARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Dallas)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 StarsDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

30.9%

Stars Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

TOR By 1 goal

12.1%

TOR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

DAL By 1 goal

19.7%

DAL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TORONTO
4
DALLAS
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
4
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Stars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stars Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stars (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Stars (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.0 Push
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 13, 2026 DAL @ TOR 6 - 5
Dec 21, 2025 TOR @ DAL 1 - 5
Jan 14, 2025 DAL @ TOR 4 - 1
Dec 18, 2024 TOR @ DAL 5 - 3
Feb 7, 2024 DAL @ TOR 4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +37.6%
Dallas: 48.9% vs Toronto: 11.3%
Blocked Shots (L5) +27.9% more
Dallas: 18.0 vs Toronto: 14.1
Takeaways (L5) +12.1% more
Dallas: 5.0 vs Toronto: 4.5
Hits (L5) +46.1% more
Toronto: 24.0 vs Dallas: 12.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.0 1
DAL Score 4.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 18.0 / 14.1 12.0 / 9.0
Faceoff % 53.3 / 55.3 39.1 / 60.9
Hits 12.9 / 24.0 11.0 / 24.0
Power Play % 4888.0 / 1128.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 24.3 / 25.4 22.0 / 28.0
Takeaways 5.0 / 4.5 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
53%MONEY47%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
TOR
DAL
TOR
ML
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-3
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
TTL
100% 3-0
100% 4-0
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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