VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
16-7-10 | Road
3
EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
17-13-6 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Carter Hart
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Alec Regula
#75 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart | None-None | 4.16 | 0.810 | -- |
| Alec Regula | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.16
GAA
--
0.810
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
100%
OILERS
0%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
OILERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Edmonton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around EDM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)
VGK By 1 goal
12.1%
VGK By 2-3 goals
9.3%
EDM By 1 goal
19.7%
EDM By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Vegas
2
VEGAS
Edmonton
3
EDMONTON
Simulated Score
Vegas
3
VEGAS
Edmonton
4
EDMONTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Oilers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Oilers
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Oilers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Oilers (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 4, 2026
VGK @ EDM
5 - 1
Mar 26, 2026
EDM @ VGK
4 - 3
Dec 21, 2025
VGK @ EDM
3 - 4
May 14, 2025
EDM @ VGK
1 - 0
May 12, 2025
VGK @ EDM
0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.1%
Edmonton: 52.8%
vs
Vegas: 46.7%
Power Play % (L5)
+5.9%
Edmonton: 35.1%
vs
Vegas: 29.2%
Takeaways (L5)
+23.9% more
Vegas: 4.9
vs
Edmonton: 3.7
Hits (L5)
+11.6% more
Vegas: 21.3
vs
Edmonton: 18.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VGK Score
2.0
3
EDM Score
3.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.6 / 17.4
17.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
52.8 / 46.7
46.3 / 53.7
Hits
18.9 / 21.3
24.0 / 32.0
Power Play %
35.1 / 29.2
66.7 / 40.0
Shots on Goal
27.0 / 30.5
21.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
3.7 / 4.9
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EDM
VGK
EDM
VGK
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
