Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Mustangs CARK @ SMU

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

BEARSCARK

5-7  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 2:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Dallas)
View Odds Details →

SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

9-2  |  Home

99
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
MUSTANGS
0%
BEARS --
MUSTANGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-48.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +48.0 points (SMU)
BearsCARK (-3.5) 0 MustangsSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

0.0%

Mustangs Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMU -48.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

CARK By 1-7 points

0.0%

CARK By 8-14 points

0.0%

SMU By 1-7 points

0.0%

SMU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
38
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
86
SMU
Simulated Score
65
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
82
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mustangs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mustangs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mustangs (-22.5) Win
Proj Spread: -48.0
D
Sim Mustangs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 CARK @ SMU 82 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +143.4% more
SMU: 2.6 vs Central Arkansas: 1.1
Free Throw % (L5) +11.1%
SMU: 72.3% vs Central Arkansas: 61.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
SMU: 47.3% vs Central Arkansas: 42.3%
Steals (L5) +22.9% more
Central Arkansas: 9.0 vs SMU: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CARK Score 38.0 82
SMU Score 86.0 99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 30.5 33.0 / 46.0
Assists 14.6 / 15.4 26.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.6 / 1.1 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 42.3 59.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 72.3 / 61.2 80.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 36.6 / 36.1 39.0 / 25.0
Steals 7.0 / 9.0 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 12.5 12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CARK Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
SMU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CARK Advantage
19-10-3 (65.5%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.9
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
CARK
SMU
CARK
ML
59% 20-14
67% 22-11
73% 24-9
70% 23-10
ATS
62% 21-13
61% 20-13
73% 24-9
70% 23-10
TTL
56% 19-15
50% 16-16-1
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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