IDAHO
VANDALSIDHO
7-4 | Road
83
CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
5-8 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
VANDALS
0%
MUSTANGS
100%
VANDALS
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
IDAHO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Idaho)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IDHO -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDHO)
IDHO By 1-7 points
27.4%
IDHO By 8-14 points
21.6%
CP By 1-7 points
20.1%
CP By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Idaho
78
IDAHO
Cal Poly
74
CAL POLY
Simulated Score
Idaho
68
IDAHO
Cal Poly
72
CAL POLY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Vandals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mustangs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Vandals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Mustangs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u167.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u167.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 21, 2025
IDHO @ CP
83 - 80
Dec 2, 2023
CP @ IDHO
70 - 85
Nov 23, 2022
IDHO @ CP
71 - 82
Nov 24, 2021
IDHO @ CP
63 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+56.0% more
Idaho: 2.5
vs
Cal Poly: 1.1
Assists (L5)
+24.4% more
Idaho: 17.4
vs
Cal Poly: 13.2
Steals (L5)
+17.4% more
Idaho: 5.7
vs
Cal Poly: 4.7
Rebounding (L5)
+8.4% more
Idaho: 39.3
vs
Cal Poly: 36.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IDHO Score
78.0
83
CP Score
74.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.8 / 42.0
19.0 / 41.0
Assists
13.2 / 17.4
6.0 / 15.0
Blocks
1.1 / 2.5
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.5 / 47.9
34.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
82.6 / 82.2
79.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
36.0 / 39.3
45.0 / 45.0
Steals
4.7 / 5.7
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
18.2 / 10.1
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDHO
Advantage
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
CP
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDHO
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
CP
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IDHO
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CP
IDHO
CP
IDHO
ML
58%
19-14
56%
20-16
58%
19-14
64%
21-12
ATS
64%
21-12
58%
21-15
58%
19-14
64%
21-12
TTL
61%
20-13
69%
25-11
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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