Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Hawks @ Cornhuskers UND @ NEB

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

5-9  |  Road

55
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Pinnacle Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

NEBRASKA

CORNHUSKERSNEB

11-0  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING HAWKS
100%
📊
CORNHUSKERS
0%
FIGHTING HAWKS --
CORNHUSKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NEBRASKA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Nebraska)
Fighting HawksUND (-3.5) 0 CornhuskersNEB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Hawks Cover

27.4%

Cornhuskers Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NEB -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEB)

UND By 1-7 points

16.9%

UND By 8-14 points

6.8%

NEB By 1-7 points

26.8%

NEB By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
70
NORTH DAKOTA
76
NEBRASKA
Simulated Score
62
NORTH DAKOTA
78
NEBRASKA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cornhuskers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cornhuskers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cornhuskers (+29.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Cornhuskers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 UND @ NEB 55 - 78
Dec 20, 2023 UND @ NEB 75 - 83
Dec 21, 2019 UND @ NEB 75 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +51.9% more
Nebraska: 18.1 vs North Dakota: 11.9
Free Throw % (L5) +9.3%
Nebraska: 80.9% vs North Dakota: 71.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.0%
Nebraska: 38.6% vs North Dakota: 30.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.6%
Nebraska: 49.4% vs North Dakota: 41.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UND Score 70.0 55
NEB Score 76.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 30.6 22.0 / 34.0
Assists 18.1 / 11.9 22.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.3 / 3.1 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 41.8 45.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 80.9 / 71.7 84.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 37.8 42.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.0 / 7.7 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.6 / 11.7 6.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UND
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
NEB Advantage
28-7-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
NEB
19-15-1 (55.9%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
NEB
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6% Total +/-: -6.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEB
UND
NEB
UND
ML
51% 18-17
44% 15-19
62% 21-13
50% 17-17
ATS
54% 19-16
50% 17-17
62% 21-13
50% 17-17
TTL
63% 22-13
65% 22-12
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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