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CHARLESTON

COUGARSCOFC

6-6  |  Road

85
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 12:00 PM ET
Truist Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN KENTUCKY

NORSENKU

9-4  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
0%
📊
NORSE
100%
COUGARS --
NORSE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
CHARLESTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Charleston)
CougarsCOFC (-3.5) 0 NorseNKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

86.4%

Norse Cover

13.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around COFC -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COFC)

COFC By 1-7 points

21.6%

COFC By 8-14 points

27.4%

NKU By 1-7 points

9.3%

NKU By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
80
CHARLESTON
69
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
69
CHARLESTON
73
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cougars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Norse Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cougars (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Norse (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 COFC @ NKU 85 - 74
Nov 27, 2024 NKU @ COFC 64 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +55.2% more
Northern Kentucky: 8.2 vs Charleston: 5.3
Assists (L5) +33.9% more
Northern Kentucky: 16.4 vs Charleston: 12.3
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Northern Kentucky: 46.5% vs Charleston: 44.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COFC Score 80.0 85
NKU Score 69.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 29.6 30.0 / 35.0
Assists 16.4 / 12.3 10.0 / 13.0
Blocks 5.6 / 5.3 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 44.8 39.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 72.6 / 72.8 88.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 37.2 / 35.4 33.0 / 34.0
Steals 8.2 / 5.3 12.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 10.9 17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COFC Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
NKU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 5.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COFC Advantage
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
NKU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 5.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
COFC
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -1.8
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NKU
COFC
NKU
COFC
ML
53% 18-16
66% 19-10
65% 22-12
62% 18-11
ATS
56% 19-15
59% 17-12
65% 22-12
62% 18-11
TTL
68% 23-11
68% 19-9-1
100% 34-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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