Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / River Hawks @ Terriers UML @ BU

UMASS LOWELL

RIVER HAWKSUML

5-8  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 12:00 PM ET
Case Gym
View Odds Details →

BOSTON UNIVERSITY

TERRIERSBU

4-8  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
RIVER HAWKS
0%
📊
TERRIERS
100%
RIVER HAWKS --
TERRIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
UMASS LOWELL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (UMass Lowell)
River HawksUML (-3.5) 0 TerriersBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

River Hawks Cover

100.0%

Terriers Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UML -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UML)

UML By 1-7 points

0.4%

UML By 8-14 points

2.2%

BU By 1-7 points

0.0%

BU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
98
UMASS LOWELL
64
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
71
UMASS LOWELL
67
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI River Hawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim River Hawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI River Hawks (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim River Hawks (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 UML @ BU 76 - 88
Dec 21, 2024 BU @ UML 71 - 83
Dec 22, 2023 UML @ BU 71 - 63
Dec 21, 2022 BU @ UML 60 - 68
Dec 8, 2021 UML @ BU 62 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +19.6% more
UMass Lowell: 16.2 vs Boston University: 13.0
Rebounding (L5) +18.3% more
UMass Lowell: 41.8 vs Boston University: 34.2
Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
UMass Lowell: 47.9% vs Boston University: 43.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
UMass Lowell: 36.9% vs Boston University: 34.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UML Score 98.0 76
BU Score 64.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 36.9 47.0 / 41.0
Assists 13.0 / 16.2 13.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.6 / 2.8 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 47.9 66.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 61.4 / 58.5 70.0 / 52.0
Rebounding 34.2 / 41.8 25.0 / 22.0
Steals 5.8 / 5.5 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 12.9 11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UML
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
BU Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UML
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
BU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UML
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.2
BU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +8.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BU
UML
BU
UML
ML
68% 23-11
70% 23-10
62% 21-13
58% 19-14
ATS
62% 21-13
70% 23-10
62% 21-13
58% 19-14
TTL
65% 22-12
58% 19-14
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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