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COLUMBIA

LIONSCOLU

9-2  |  Road

56
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 5:00 PM ET
Haas Pavilion
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

11-1  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
GOLDEN BEARS
0%
LIONS --
GOLDEN BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (California)
LionsCOLU (-3.5) 0 Golden BearsCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

0.6%

Golden Bears Cover

99.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CAL -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

COLU By 1-7 points

0.5%

COLU By 8-14 points

0.1%

CAL By 1-7 points

3.3%

CAL By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
47
COLUMBIA
72
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
68
COLUMBIA
73
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Bears (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Golden Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 COLU @ CAL 56 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +17.5% more
California: 8.7 vs Columbia: 7.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.5%
California: 44.8% vs Columbia: 34.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +7.8%
California: 84.2% vs Columbia: 76.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
California: 49.6% vs Columbia: 46.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLU Score 47.0 56
CAL Score 72.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.8 / 34.3 33.0 / 24.0
Assists 15.5 / 17.3 14.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.9 / 4.7 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.6 / 46.5 42.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 84.2 / 76.3 79.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 46.3 34.0 / 34.0
Steals 8.7 / 7.4 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 14.2 6.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLU
16-12-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
CAL Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLU
13-13-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
CAL Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
COLU
14-12-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: -1.1
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
COLU
CAL
COLU
ML
61% 20-13
44% 12-15
77% 24-7
56% 15-12
ATS
64% 21-12
59% 16-11
78% 25-7
56% 15-12
TTL
70% 23-10
74% 20-7
100% 32-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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