INDIANA STATE
SYCAMORESINST
7-5 | Road
65
ILLINOIS STATE
REDBIRDSILST
9-3 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
SYCAMORES
0%
REDBIRDS
100%
SYCAMORES
--
REDBIRDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ILST +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILST)
INST By 1-7 points
26.2%
INST By 8-14 points
16.9%
ILST By 1-7 points
24.3%
ILST By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana State
70
INDIANA STATE
Illinois State
69
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
Indiana State
70
INDIANA STATE
Illinois State
78
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sycamores
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Redbirds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Redbirds (+13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Redbirds (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 14, 2026
ILST @ INST
89 - 94
Dec 21, 2025
INST @ ILST
65 - 85
Feb 15, 2025
ILST @ INST
76 - 85
Jan 21, 2025
INST @ ILST
81 - 85
Feb 13, 2024
ILST @ INST
80 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+39.2% more
Indiana State: 3.7
vs
Illinois State: 2.3
Rebounding (L5)
+17.0% more
Indiana State: 41.2
vs
Illinois State: 34.2
Assists (L5)
+13.7% more
Indiana State: 18.8
vs
Illinois State: 16.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.3%
Indiana State: 73.4%
vs
Illinois State: 60.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
INST Score
70.0
65
ILST Score
69.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.9 / 33.4
31.0 / 38.0
Assists
16.2 / 18.8
16.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.3 / 3.7
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.8 / 47.2
52.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
60.1 / 73.4
80.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
34.2 / 41.2
37.0 / 28.0
Steals
8.0 / 5.7
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 13.5
4.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
INST
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
ILST
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
INST
Advantage
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
ILST
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -3.9
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
INST
ILST
INST
ML
42%
15-21
66%
21-11
71%
24-10
53%
17-15
ATS
58%
21-15
62%
20-12
71%
24-10
53%
17-15
TTL
58%
21-15
53%
17-15
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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