Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Texas @ San Diego St UNT @ SDSU

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

11-2  |  Road

49
FINAL
Sat, Dec 27 • 5:45 PM ET
University Stadium (NM)
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

9-3  |  Home

47
Key Game
Amarion Berry
KEY GAME

Amarion Berry

#62 | Offensive Lineman
@
Max Garrison
KEY GAME

Max Garrison

#22 | Safety
Player
Amarion Berry None-None
Max Garrison None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH TEXAS
0%
📊
SAN DIEGO ST
100%
NORTH TEXAS --
SAN DIEGO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
80.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-60.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +60.0 points (North Texas)
North TexasUNT (-3.5) 0 San Diego StSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Texas Cover

100.0%

San Diego St Cover

0.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNT -60.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

UNT By 1-6 points

0.0%

UNT By 7-13 points

0.0%

SDSU By 1-6 points

0.0%

SDSU By 7-13 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
70
NORTH TEXAS
10
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
20
NORTH TEXAS
27
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI North Texas Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim San Diego St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI North Texas (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -60.0
B
Sim San Diego St (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o53.5 Win
Proj Total: 80.0
B
Sim u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 27, 2025 UNT @ SDSU 49 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.8% more
North Texas: 2.3 vs San Diego State: 1.3
Total Yards (L5) +39.0% more
North Texas: 521.6 vs San Diego State: 318.1
First Downs (L5) +33.2% more
North Texas: 25.2 vs San Diego State: 16.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
North Texas: 0.4 vs San Diego State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNT Score 70.0 49
SDSU Score 10.0 47
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.8 / 25.2 25.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards 194.8 / 175.6 326.0 / 368.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.29 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 318.1 / 521.6 532.0 / 618.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.3 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
SDSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
SDSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.5
SDSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
UNT
SDSU
UNT
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
American Conference Week 6: A 100-Pound Rib Trophy, a Walk-On's …
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Wisconsin Badgers Rank Third in National TV Viewership Through E…
si 5 hours, 46 minutes ago
Rodriguez: Roster Turnover Slowing WVU's Progress
theintermountain 18 hours, 10 minutes ago
Florida Gators Seek Redemption After Blowout Loss, Turn Focus to…
yourvalley_net 1 day, 12 hours ago
Mountaineers' Defensive Coordinator Zac Alley Loses Sleep Over S…
observer_reporter 1 day, 23 hours ago