Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pioneers @ Bears DEN @ UNCO

DENVER

PIONEERSDEN

6-7  |  Road

86
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 3:00 PM ET
Bank of Colorado Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN COLORADO

BEARSUNCO

9-2  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
PIONEERS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Denver)
PioneersDEN (-3.5) 0 BearsUNCO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pioneers Cover

98.2%

Bears Cover

1.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-7 points

6.8%

DEN By 8-14 points

16.9%

UNCO By 1-7 points

1.4%

UNCO By 8-14 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
85
DENVER
64
NORTHERN COLORADO
Simulated Score
70
DENVER
75
NORTHERN COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pioneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pioneers (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 DEN @ UNCO 86 - 79
Dec 21, 2024 UNCO @ DEN 82 - 75
Jan 6, 2024 DEN @ UNCO 82 - 86
Dec 16, 2020 UNCO @ DEN 83 - 75
Dec 17, 2019 DEN @ UNCO 64 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +54.0% more
Denver: 3.2 vs Northern Colorado: 1.5
Steals (L5) +32.1% more
Denver: 4.7 vs Northern Colorado: 3.2
Rebounding (L5) +10.1% more
Denver: 37.8 vs Northern Colorado: 34.0
Free Throw % (L5) +6.9%
Denver: 73.8% vs Northern Colorado: 66.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 85.0 86
UNCO Score 64.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.8 / 47.0 20.0 / 53.0
Assists 18.0 / 14.5 10.0 / 9.0
Blocks 1.5 / 3.2 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 53.4 / 56.4 49.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 66.9 / 73.8 40.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 37.8 39.0 / 30.0
Steals 3.2 / 4.7 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 10.0 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
UNCO Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
17-11-1 (60.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
UNCO
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
20-8-1
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +7.0
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCO
DEN
UNCO
DEN
ML
50% 16-16
56% 18-14
66% 21-11
59% 19-13
ATS
53% 17-15
66% 21-11
66% 21-11
59% 19-13
TTL
50% 16-16
59% 19-13
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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