Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Bulldogs MEM @ MSST

MEMPHIS

TIGERSMEM

4-6  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 4:00 PM ET
Humphrey Coliseum
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

6-5  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
TIGERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Mississippi State)
TigersMEM (-3.5) 0 BulldogsMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

46.0%

Bulldogs Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSST -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

MEM By 1-7 points

24.3%

MEM By 8-14 points

13.7%

MSST By 1-7 points

26.2%

MSST By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
67
MEMPHIS
68
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
70
MEMPHIS
74
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 MEM @ MSST 66 - 71
Dec 21, 2024 MSST @ MEM 79 - 66
Mar 28, 2021 MSST @ MEM 64 - 77
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.5%
Mississippi State: 35.3% vs Memphis: 25.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
Mississippi State: 46.3% vs Memphis: 40.4%
Steals (L5) +40.6% more
Memphis: 9.8 vs Mississippi State: 5.8
Turnovers (L5) +38.7% more
Memphis: 14.6 vs Mississippi State: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 67.0 66
MSST Score 68.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 25.8 29.0 / 29.0
Assists 11.8 / 11.9 11.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.3 / 4.5 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 40.4 44.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 65.1 / 73.5 68.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 38.8 / 38.1 35.0 / 43.0
Steals 5.8 / 9.8 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 14.6 15.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
MEM
MSST
MEM
ML
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
55% 17-14
68% 21-10
ATS
56% 18-14
62% 20-12
55% 17-14
68% 21-10
TTL
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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