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MOREHEAD STATE

EAGLESMORE

4-7  |  Road

64
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 4:30 PM ET
Liberty Arena (IN)
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN INDIANA

SCREAMING EAGLESUSI

3-8  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
📊
SCREAMING EAGLES
100%
EAGLES --
SCREAMING EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
107.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
MOREHEAD STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Morehead State)
EaglesMORE (-3.5) 0 Screaming EaglesUSI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

99.4%

Screaming Eagles Cover

0.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MORE -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORE)

MORE By 1-7 points

3.3%

MORE By 8-14 points

10.7%

USI By 1-7 points

0.5%

USI By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
66
MOREHEAD STATE
41
SOUTHERN INDIANA
Simulated Score
75
MOREHEAD STATE
68
SOUTHERN INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Eagles (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 107.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 USI @ MORE 63 - 64
Dec 20, 2025 MORE @ USI 64 - 60
Jan 28, 2025 USI @ MORE 65 - 66
Dec 31, 2024 MORE @ USI 70 - 68
Feb 20, 2024 USI @ MORE 80 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +29.6% more
Morehead State: 14.6 vs Southern Indiana: 10.3
Assists (L5) +21.5% more
Morehead State: 13.7 vs Southern Indiana: 10.7
Free Throw % (L5) +13.4%
Morehead State: 70.3% vs Southern Indiana: 56.9%
Steals (L5) +8.4% more
Morehead State: 7.8 vs Southern Indiana: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORE Score 66.0 64
USI Score 41.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 33.3 34.0 / 27.0
Assists 10.7 / 13.7 8.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.2 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 39.9 / 44.1 28.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 56.9 / 70.3 77.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 34.6 / 35.6 43.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.1 / 7.8 3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 14.6 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
9%MONEY91%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORE Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
USI
7-23-0 (23.3%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORE Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
USI
11-16-1 (40.7%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.5
USI
11-17-0
O: 39.3% / U: 60.7% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USI
MORE
USI
MORE
ML
67% 20-10
62% 20-12
61% 17-11
68% 21-10
ATS
70% 21-9
59% 19-13
61% 17-11
68% 21-10
TTL
73% 22-8
53% 17-15
100% 28-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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