SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
REDHAWKSSEMO
5-7 | Road
91
TENNESSEE STATE
TIGERSTNST
7-4 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
REDHAWKS
0%
TIGERS
100%
REDHAWKS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Southeast Missouri State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SEMO -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEMO)
SEMO By 1-7 points
23.0%
SEMO By 8-14 points
27.2%
TNST By 1-7 points
10.7%
TNST By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Southeast Missouri State
82
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Tennessee State
72
TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
Southeast Missouri State
68
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Tennessee State
72
TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Redhawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Redhawks (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
TNST @ SEMO
79 - 71
Dec 20, 2025
SEMO @ TNST
91 - 82
Feb 1, 2025
TNST @ SEMO
87 - 89
Jan 2, 2025
SEMO @ TNST
67 - 65
Feb 10, 2024
TNST @ SEMO
77 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+42.2% more
Southeast Missouri State: 3.9
vs
Tennessee State: 2.3
Assists (L5)
+16.1% more
Southeast Missouri State: 13.1
vs
Tennessee State: 11.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.9%
Southeast Missouri State: 71.9%
vs
Tennessee State: 66.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Southeast Missouri State: 29.1%
vs
Tennessee State: 25.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEMO Score
82.0
91
TNST Score
72.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
25.8 / 29.1
40.0 / 45.0
Assists
11.0 / 13.1
9.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.3 / 3.9
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 43.9
42.0 / 58.0
Free Throw %
66.9 / 71.9
72.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 36.3
28.0 / 39.0
Steals
9.5 / 6.8
9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 13.3
10.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEMO
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
TNST
Advantage
23-10-0
(69.7%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEMO
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
TNST
Advantage
18-11-1
(62.1%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -2.4
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TNST
SEMO
TNST
SEMO
ML
52%
16-15
64%
21-12
63%
17-10
50%
15-15
ATS
68%
21-10
67%
22-11
64%
18-10
50%
15-15
TTL
52%
16-15
58%
19-14
100%
28-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
Clemson's Brad Brownell Reveals New Identity, Injury Updates at …
Kansas Jayhawks Set Program Record with 706 Yards, Blank Middle …
LSU vs. McNeese: The Deep In-State Ties Behind Saturday's Rare S…
Memphis Basketball's Non-Conference Slate Ranked by Bart Torvik:…
Princeton Basketball Standout A'mire Gill Pledges to Miami (Ohio…