THE CITADEL
BULLDOGSCIT
3-9 | Road
56
RICHMOND
SPIDERSRICH
9-2 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
SPIDERS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
SPIDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
RICHMOND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Richmond)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around RICH -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RICH)
CIT By 1-7 points
1.4%
CIT By 8-14 points
0.2%
RICH By 1-7 points
6.8%
RICH By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
The Citadel
75
THE CITADEL
Richmond
96
RICHMOND
Simulated Score
The Citadel
62
THE CITADEL
Richmond
75
RICHMOND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spiders
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spiders
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spiders (-19.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Spiders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 20, 2025
CIT @ RICH
56 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+94.3% more
Richmond: 3.4
vs
The Citadel: 1.8
Steals (L5)
+40.0% more
Richmond: 6.7
vs
The Citadel: 4.8
Turnovers (L5)
+40.0% more
Richmond: 14.2
vs
The Citadel: 10.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+18.2%
Richmond: 81.4%
vs
The Citadel: 63.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIT Score
75.0
56
RICH Score
96.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.2 / 29.6
30.0 / 32.0
Assists
15.5 / 13.4
17.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.4 / 1.8
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 41.7
52.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
81.4 / 63.1
68.0 / 57.0
Rebounding
34.9 / 35.3
34.0 / 32.0
Steals
6.7 / 4.8
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 10.1
8.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIT
11-22-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
RICH
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIT
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
RICH
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.9
RICH
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICH
CIT
RICH
CIT
ML
53%
17-15
59%
19-13
56%
18-14
62%
20-12
ATS
44%
14-18
62%
20-12
56%
18-14
64%
21-12
TTL
56%
18-14
53%
17-15
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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