HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
16-8 | Road
115
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
20-6 | Home
101
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
NUGGETS
100%
ROCKETS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
26.8%
HOU By 8-14 points
24.3%
DEN By 1-7 points
16.9%
DEN By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
115
HOUSTON
Denver
109
DENVER
Simulated Score
Houston
112
HOUSTON
Denver
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+1)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u235.0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim
u235.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
HOU @ DEN
93 - 129
Dec 20, 2025
HOU @ DEN
115 - 101
Dec 15, 2025
HOU @ DEN
125 - 128
Nov 21, 2025
DEN @ HOU
112 - 109
Apr 13, 2025
DEN @ HOU
126 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+52.8% more
Houston: 6.6
vs
Denver: 3.1
Turnovers (L5)
+31.8% more
Houston: 18.5
vs
Denver: 12.6
Rebounding (L5)
+19.9% more
Houston: 50.3
vs
Denver: 40.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
Denver: 43.4%
vs
Houston: 37.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
115.0
115
DEN Score
109.0
101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.4 / 37.5
28.0 / 54.0
Assists
29.5 / 27.5
21.0 / 24.0
Blocks
3.1 / 6.6
2.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
54.5 / 49.1
40.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
78.4 / 75.2
83.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
40.3 / 50.3
39.0 / 47.0
Steals
7.9 / 7.5
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 18.5
11.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
HOU
DEN
HOU
ML
54%
57-48
61%
69-44
55%
47-39
59%
51-35
ATS
63%
65-38-2
62%
70-43
55%
47-39
59%
51-35
TTL
54%
56-48-1
51%
58-55
100%
86-0
100%
86-0
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