PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
15-12 | Road
116
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
13-15 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
0%
WARRIORS
100%
SUNS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
252.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
PHX By 1-7 points
5.8%
PHX By 8-14 points
15.3%
GS By 1-7 points
1.1%
GS By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
137
PHOENIX
Golden State
115
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Phoenix
112
PHOENIX
Golden State
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warriors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Suns (-6)
Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Warriors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o227.5
Win
Proj Total: 252.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 17, 2026
GS @ PHX
96 - 111
Feb 5, 2026
GS @ PHX
101 - 97
Dec 20, 2025
PHX @ GS
116 - 119
Dec 18, 2025
GS @ PHX
98 - 99
Nov 4, 2025
PHX @ GS
107 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+22.2% more
Phoenix: 12.8
vs
Golden State: 9.9
Blocks (L5)
+11.7% more
Phoenix: 4.1
vs
Golden State: 3.6
Assists (L5)
+22.7% more
Golden State: 28.6
vs
Phoenix: 23.3
Rebounding (L5)
+10.8% more
Golden State: 46.1
vs
Phoenix: 41.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
137.0
116
GS Score
115.0
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.3 / 31.6
35.0 / 34.0
Assists
28.6 / 23.3
29.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.6 / 4.1
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 43.9
46.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
82.3 / 77.4
75.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
46.1 / 41.6
49.0 / 34.0
Steals
9.9 / 12.8
9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
17.0 / 16.0
21.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
PHX
GS
PHX
ML
55%
95-79
57%
60-45
58%
49-35
51%
45-43
ATS
58%
101-73
58%
59-43-3
58%
49-35
51%
45-43
TTL
77%
134-40
59%
61-42-2
100%
84-0
100%
88-0
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