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NORFOLK STATE

SPARTANSNORF

4-7  |  Road

82
FINAL
Fri, Dec 19 • 7:30 PM ET
Gateway Center
View Odds Details →

JACKSON STATE

TIGERSJKST

1-9  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
SPARTANS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
JACKSON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Jackson State)
SpartansNORF (-3.5) 0 TigersJKST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

1.8%

Tigers Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JKST -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JKST)

NORF By 1-7 points

1.4%

NORF By 8-14 points

0.2%

JKST By 1-7 points

6.8%

JKST By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
65
NORFOLK STATE
86
JACKSON STATE
Simulated Score
68
NORFOLK STATE
72
JACKSON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 19, 2025 NORF @ JKST 82 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +21.4% more
Jackson State: 14.9 vs Norfolk State: 12.3
Free Throw % (L5) +21.0%
Jackson State: 73.6% vs Norfolk State: 52.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Jackson State: 29.0% vs Norfolk State: 26.5%
Blocks (L5) +26.6% more
Norfolk State: 3.2 vs Jackson State: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NORF Score 65.0 82
JKST Score 86.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.0 / 26.5 38.0 / 43.0
Assists 9.6 / 9.9 18.0 / 23.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.2 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 37.8 / 44.1 41.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 52.6 75.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 28.4 / 37.5 34.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.9 / 5.7 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 12.3 16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NORF Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
JKST
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -13.5 ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NORF Advantage
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
JKST
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -13.5 ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NORF
19-9-0
O: 67.9% / U: 32.1% Total +/-: +4.6
JKST
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JKST
NORF
JKST
NORF
ML
77% 24-7
67% 20-10
73% 19-7
71% 20-8
ATS
77% 24-7
63% 19-11
73% 19-7
72% 21-8
TTL
58% 18-13
60% 18-12
100% 26-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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