HOUSTON
COUGARSHOU
10-1 | Road
94
ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
9-2 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
RAZORBACKS
0%
COUGARS
--
RAZORBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (Arkansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARK -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)
HOU By 1-7 points
0.0%
HOU By 8-14 points
0.0%
ARK By 1-7 points
0.0%
ARK By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
63
HOUSTON
Arkansas
104
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
Houston
65
HOUSTON
Arkansas
72
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Razorbacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Razorbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Razorbacks (+5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim
Razorbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Win
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 20, 2025
HOU @ ARK
94 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+17.2% more
Arkansas: 10.3
vs
Houston: 8.8
Blocks (L5)
+10.8% more
Arkansas: 4.0
vs
Houston: 3.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.4%
Arkansas: 44.5%
vs
Houston: 39.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Arkansas: 50.7%
vs
Houston: 48.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
63.0
94
ARK Score
104.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
44.5 / 39.1
40.0 / 44.0
Assists
20.2 / 20.0
13.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.0 / 3.6
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.7 / 48.0
49.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
74.7 / 72.1
60.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 37.5
34.0 / 33.0
Steals
9.5 / 10.2
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 8.8
12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
ARK
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
ARK
Advantage
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -0.9
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
HOU
ARK
HOU
ML
68%
25-12
70%
26-11
81%
25-6
68%
23-11
ATS
70%
26-11
70%
26-11
81%
25-6
68%
23-11
TTL
57%
21-16
59%
22-15
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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