Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Boilermakers AUB @ PUR

AUBURN

TIGERSAUB

8-3  |  Road

60
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 6:30 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

PURDUE

BOILERMAKERSPUR

10-1  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
BOILERMAKERS
0%
TIGERS --
BOILERMAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Purdue)
TigersAUB (-3.5) 0 BoilermakersPUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

46.0%

Boilermakers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PUR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)

AUB By 1-7 points

24.3%

AUB By 8-14 points

13.7%

PUR By 1-7 points

26.2%

PUR By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
67
AUBURN
68
PURDUE
Simulated Score
72
AUBURN
78
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Boilermakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Boilermakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 AUB @ PUR 60 - 88
Dec 21, 2024 PUR @ AUB 69 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +59.1% more
Purdue: 20.2 vs Auburn: 12.7
Steals (L5) +15.1% more
Purdue: 5.9 vs Auburn: 5.2
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Purdue: 51.4% vs Auburn: 46.7%
Turnovers (L5) +12.0% more
Auburn: 13.4 vs Purdue: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AUB Score 67.0 60
PUR Score 68.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 36.8 46.0 / 28.0
Assists 20.2 / 12.7 21.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.3 / 4.4 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 51.4 / 46.7 56.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 72.1 / 78.3 100.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 39.3 / 37.4 36.0 / 25.0
Steals 5.9 / 5.2 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 13.4 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AUB
22-16-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
PUR Advantage
30-9-0 (76.9%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AUB
15-23-0 (39.5%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
PUR Advantage
17-22-0 (43.6%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +4.2
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
AUB
PUR
AUB
ML
67% 26-13
58% 22-16
66% 25-13
75% 24-8
ATS
64% 25-14
74% 28-10
66% 25-13
75% 24-8
TTL
51% 20-19
53% 20-18
100% 38-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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