Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / FIU @ UTSA FIU @ UTSA

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

7-5  |  Road

20
FINAL
Fri, Dec 26 • 8:00 PM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTSA

UTSAUTSA

6-6  |  Home

57
Key Game
Kenton Simmons
KEY GAME

Kenton Simmons

#5 | Defensive Lineman
@
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
Player
Kenton Simmons None-None
Caile Hogan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FIU
100%
📊
UTSA
0%
FIU --
UTSA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
UTSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (UTSA)
FIUFIU (-3.5) 0 UTSAUTSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FIU Cover

41.5%

UTSA Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTSA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTSA)

FIU By 1-6 points

15.3%

FIU By 7-13 points

12.9%

UTSA By 1-6 points

17.0%

UTSA By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
31
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
34
UTSA
Simulated Score
17
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
38
UTSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UTSA Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim UTSA Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UTSA (+7) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim UTSA (+7) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o62.5 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
B
Sim u62.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 26, 2025 FIU @ UTSA 20 - 57
Oct 14, 2022 UTSA @ FIU 30 - 10
Nov 10, 2018 FIU @ UTSA 45 - 7
Nov 4, 2017 UTSA @ FIU 7 - 14
Oct 11, 2014 FIU @ UTSA 13 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
UTSA: 0.4 vs Florida International: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +29.7% more
Florida International: 1.5 vs UTSA: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.3% more
Florida International: 219.1 vs UTSA: 157.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FIU Score 31.0 20
UTSA Score 34.0 57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 21.8 25.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 157.1 / 219.1 186.0 / 79.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 429.0 / 461.1 481.0 / 255.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FIU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
UTSA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FIU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
UTSA Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
FIU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -22.1
UTSA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTSA
FIU
UTSA
FIU
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Bryce Young Returns to Tuscaloosa as ESPN College GameDay Guest …
yahoo 5 hours, 43 minutes ago
Thursday Night College Football: UTSA vs. South Florida Headline…
usatoday 12 hours, 2 minutes ago
Pat Narduzzi Tells AP Voters to 'Wake Their A** Up' After Pitt's…
awfulannouncing 5 days, 18 hours ago
Texas Opens SEC Play as 5.5-Point Favorite at Tennessee
yahoo 2 weeks, 3 days ago
Texas Longhorns Edge UTSA 30-6: Offense Sputters, Defense Shines…
yahoo 2 weeks, 4 days ago