MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
DELTA DEVILSMVSU
1-10 | Road
49
FLORIDA STATE
SEMINOLESFSU
5-6 | Home
96
AI Model Win Probability
DELTA DEVILS
100%
SEMINOLES
0%
DELTA DEVILS
--
SEMINOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (Florida State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FSU -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)
MVSU By 1-7 points
0.0%
MVSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
FSU By 1-7 points
0.0%
FSU By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Mississippi Valley State
41
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Florida State
82
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
Mississippi Valley State
52
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Florida State
85
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Seminoles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seminoles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Seminoles (+41.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim
Seminoles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u163.5
Win
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim
u163.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 19, 2025
MVSU @ FSU
49 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+25.8% more
Florida State: 36.9
vs
Mississippi Valley State: 29.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Florida State: 29.2%
vs
Mississippi Valley State: 27.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+20.7% more
Mississippi Valley State: 20.1
vs
Florida State: 15.9
Blocks (L5)
+19.5% more
Mississippi Valley State: 4.4
vs
Florida State: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MVSU Score
41.0
49
FSU Score
82.0
96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.2 / 27.4
32.0 / 17.0
Assists
12.1 / 15.0
20.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.6 / 4.4
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
39.1 / 42.3
46.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
70.1 / 73.2
79.0 / 55.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 29.4
40.0 / 31.0
Steals
7.7 / 8.2
14.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 20.1
10.0 / 25.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MVSU
3-30-0
(9.1%)
Margin: -18.8
ATS +/-: +0.4
FSU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MVSU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -18.8
ATS +/-: +0.4
FSU
Advantage
19-13-1
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MVSU
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +1.0
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
MVSU
FSU
MVSU
ML
64%
21-12
91%
30-3
59%
19-13
75%
18-6
ATS
55%
18-15
82%
27-6
59%
19-13
75%
18-6
TTL
48%
16-17
58%
19-14
100%
32-0
100%
24-0
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