Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Lions UNA @ LMU

NORTH ALABAMA

LIONSUNA

5-5  |  Road

57
FINAL
Fri, Dec 19 • 10:00 PM ET
Gersten Pavilion
View Odds Details →

LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

LIONSLMU

7-4  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
LIONS
0%
LIONS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
92.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Loyola Marymount)
LionsUNA (-3.5) 0 LionsLMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

11.5%

Lions Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LMU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LMU)

UNA By 1-7 points

8.0%

UNA By 8-14 points

2.2%

LMU By 1-7 points

20.1%

LMU By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
40
NORTH ALABAMA
52
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Simulated Score
71
NORTH ALABAMA
76
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 92.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 19, 2025 UNA @ LMU 57 - 91
Dec 22, 2024 UNA @ LMU 69 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +39.1% more
Loyola Marymount: 7.8 vs North Alabama: 5.6
Turnovers (L5) +37.4% more
Loyola Marymount: 15.2 vs North Alabama: 11.1
Blocks (L5) +29.9% more
Loyola Marymount: 5.3 vs North Alabama: 4.1
Assists (L5) +17.0% more
Loyola Marymount: 13.1 vs North Alabama: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNA Score 40.0 57
LMU Score 52.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.4 / 32.8 50.0 / 20.0
Assists 13.1 / 11.2 22.0 / 7.0
Blocks 5.3 / 4.1 8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 40.9 / 42.5 51.0 / 30.0
Free Throw % 60.8 / 70.8 65.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 33.0 / 37.2 45.0 / 34.0
Steals 7.8 / 5.6 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 11.1 9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNA
9-21-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
LMU Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNA
10-17-1 (37.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
LMU Advantage
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.4
LMU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LMU
UNA
LMU
UNA
ML
53% 17-15
43% 13-17
50% 16-16
57% 16-12
ATS
47% 15-17
60% 18-12
50% 16-16
57% 16-12
TTL
62% 20-12
63% 19-11
100% 32-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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