SE LOUISIANA
LIONSSELA
4-7 | Road
65
LSU
TIGERSLSU
9-1 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
TIGERS
0%
LIONS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LSU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (LSU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LSU)
SELA By 1-7 points
24.3%
SELA By 8-14 points
13.7%
LSU By 1-7 points
26.2%
LSU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
SE Louisiana
38
SE LOUISIANA
LSU
39
LSU
Simulated Score
SE Louisiana
58
SE LOUISIANA
LSU
82
LSU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+23.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 19, 2025
SELA @ LSU
65 - 78
Dec 1, 2023
SELA @ LSU
66 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+13.5% more
LSU: 36.4
vs
SE Louisiana: 32.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.7%
LSU: 50.6%
vs
SE Louisiana: 42.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.0%
LSU: 76.5%
vs
SE Louisiana: 73.6%
Steals (L5)
+13.0% more
SE Louisiana: 7.8
vs
LSU: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SELA Score
38.0
65
LSU Score
39.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.9 / 33.9
41.0 / 24.0
Assists
13.9 / 13.0
13.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.9 / 3.8
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.6 / 42.9
54.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
76.5 / 73.6
70.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
36.4 / 32.1
29.0 / 29.0
Steals
6.8 / 7.8
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 10.9
8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SELA
Advantage
9-22-0
(29.0%)
Margin: -5.4
ATS +/-: -0.9
LSU
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SELA
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -5.4
ATS +/-: -0.9
LSU
--
⚖️ Over/Under
SELA
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -1.4
LSU
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
SELA
LSU
SELA
ML
62%
20-12
70%
21-9
62%
20-12
66%
19-10
ATS
66%
21-11
60%
18-12
62%
20-12
67%
20-10
TTL
72%
23-9
70%
21-9
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
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