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MORGAN STATE

BEARSMORG

2-8  |  Road

50
FINAL
Fri, Dec 19 • 10:00 PM ET
Haas Pavilion
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

10-1  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
GOLDEN BEARS
0%
BEARS --
GOLDEN BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
88.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (California)
BearsMORG (-3.5) 0 Golden BearsCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

5.5%

Golden Bears Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CAL -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

MORG By 1-7 points

4.0%

MORG By 8-14 points

0.8%

CAL By 1-7 points

13.7%

CAL By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
36
MORGAN STATE
52
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
61
MORGAN STATE
82
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Bears (+26.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Golden Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 88.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 19, 2025 MORG @ CAL 50 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +44.4% more
California: 7.1 vs Morgan State: 4.9
Blocks (L5) +36.8% more
California: 3.8 vs Morgan State: 2.8
Assists (L5) +17.0% more
California: 13.7 vs Morgan State: 11.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.2%
California: 39.7% vs Morgan State: 29.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORG Score 36.0 50
CAL Score 52.0 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.7 / 29.5 55.0 / 6.0
Assists 13.7 / 11.7 19.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.8 / 2.8 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 44.0 59.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 78.3 / 80.4 96.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 33.6 36.0 / 24.0
Steals 7.1 / 4.9 12.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 17.1 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORG
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
CAL Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORG Advantage
14-12-1 (53.8%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
CAL
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7% Total +/-: +2.5
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
MORG
CAL
MORG
ML
61% 20-13
50% 14-14
77% 24-7
58% 14-10
ATS
64% 21-12
50% 14-14
78% 25-7
58% 14-10
TTL
70% 23-10
50% 14-14
100% 32-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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