Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mustangs @ Bruins CP @ UCLA

CAL POLY

MUSTANGSCP

5-7  |  Road

87
FINAL
Fri, Dec 19 • 10:00 PM ET
Pauley Pavilion
View Odds Details →

UCLA

BRUINSUCLA

7-3  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
📊
BRUINS
0%
MUSTANGS --
BRUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
115.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
UCLA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (UCLA)
MustangsCP (-3.5) 0 BruinsUCLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mustangs Cover

0.6%

Bruins Cover

99.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCLA -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCLA)

CP By 1-7 points

0.5%

CP By 8-14 points

0.1%

UCLA By 1-7 points

3.3%

UCLA By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
45
CAL POLY
70
UCLA
Simulated Score
55
CAL POLY
78
UCLA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bruins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bruins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bruins (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Bruins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 115.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 19, 2025 CP @ UCLA 87 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +322.2% more
UCLA: 4.9 vs Cal Poly: 1.2
Steals (L5) +50.6% more
UCLA: 6.8 vs Cal Poly: 4.5
Assists (L5) +36.7% more
UCLA: 16.0 vs Cal Poly: 11.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.2%
UCLA: 47.0% vs Cal Poly: 34.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CP Score 45.0 87
UCLA Score 70.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 47.0 / 34.8 43.0 / 44.0
Assists 16.0 / 11.7 20.0 / 16.0
Blocks 4.9 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 44.2 57.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 77.8 / 76.4 90.0 / 95.0
Rebounding 32.8 / 40.0 21.0 / 28.0
Steals 6.8 / 4.5 10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 15.3 8.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
UCLA Advantage
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP Advantage
16-14-1 (53.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
UCLA
17-18-1 (48.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +0.8
UCLA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
CP
UCLA
CP
ML
67% 24-12
58% 19-14
76% 25-8
58% 19-14
ATS
61% 22-14
64% 21-12
76% 25-8
58% 19-14
TTL
61% 22-14
61% 20-13
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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