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NORFOLK STATE

SPARTANSNORF

4-7  |  Road

68
FINAL
Thu, Dec 18 • 7:30 PM ET
Gateway Center
View Odds Details →

GRAMBLING

TIGERSGRAM

3-6  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
SPARTANS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
GRAMBLING
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Grambling)
SpartansNORF (-3.5) 0 TigersGRAM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

46.0%

Tigers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GRAM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GRAM)

NORF By 1-7 points

24.3%

NORF By 8-14 points

13.7%

GRAM By 1-7 points

26.2%

GRAM By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
38
NORFOLK STATE
39
GRAMBLING
Simulated Score
68
NORFOLK STATE
71
GRAMBLING
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 18, 2025 NORF @ GRAM 68 - 80
Dec 20, 2024 NORF @ GRAM 76 - 70
Nov 29, 2021 NORF @ GRAM 70 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +33.9% more
Grambling: 16.0 vs Norfolk State: 11.9
Steals (L5) +16.9% more
Grambling: 7.1 vs Norfolk State: 6.1
Free Throw % (L5) +11.7%
Grambling: 68.5% vs Norfolk State: 56.8%
Assists (L5) +9.8% more
Grambling: 10.7 vs Norfolk State: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NORF Score 38.0 68
GRAM Score 39.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.4 / 29.8 39.0 / 20.0
Assists 10.7 / 9.8 23.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.0 / 2.8 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.2 / 45.7 48.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 68.5 / 56.8 77.0 / 44.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 34.3 33.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.1 / 6.1 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 16.0 / 11.9 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NORF Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
GRAM
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NORF
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
GRAM Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NORF
19-9-0
O: 67.9% / U: 32.1% Total +/-: +4.6
GRAM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GRAM
NORF
GRAM
NORF
ML
68% 21-10
67% 20-10
68% 17-8
71% 20-8
ATS
61% 19-12
63% 19-11
68% 17-8
72% 21-8
TTL
58% 18-13
60% 18-12
100% 25-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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