Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / FIU @ Sam Houston FIU @ SHSU

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

6-5  |  Road

56
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 1:00 PM ET
Shell Energy Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAM HOUSTON

SAM HOUSTONSHSU

2-9  |  Home

16
Key Game
Andre Brown
KEY GAME

Andre Brown

#18 | Wide Receiver
@
Jerrian Parker Jr.
KEY GAME

Jerrian Parker Jr.

#6 | Running Back
Player
Andre Brown None-None
Jerrian Parker Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FIU
0%
📊
SAM HOUSTON
100%
FIU --
SAM HOUSTON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Florida International)
FIUFIU (-3.5) 0 Sam HoustonSHSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FIU Cover

88.8%

Sam Houston Cover

11.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around FIU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FIU)

FIU By 1-6 points

10.7%

FIU By 7-13 points

17.5%

SHSU By 1-6 points

5.9%

SHSU By 7-13 points

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
41
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
24
SAM HOUSTON
Simulated Score
17
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
31
SAM HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI FIU Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Sam Houston Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI FIU (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim Sam Houston (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 FIU @ SHSU 56 - 16
Oct 22, 2024 SHSU @ FIU 10 - 7
Oct 18, 2023 FIU @ SHSU 33 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +51.4% more
Florida International: 1.7 vs Sam Houston: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.5% more
Florida International: 177.2 vs Sam Houston: 121.5
Total Yards (L5) +15.6% more
Florida International: 394.7 vs Sam Houston: 333.0
First Downs (L5) +15.0% more
Florida International: 20.7 vs Sam Houston: 17.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FIU Score 41.0 56
SHSU Score 24.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 20.7 19.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 121.5 / 177.2 196.0 / 303.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.3 0.25 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 333.0 / 394.7 359.0 / 594.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.7 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FIU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
SHSU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FIU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
SHSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
⚖️ Over/Under
FIU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -22.1
SHSU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHSU
FIU
SHSU
FIU
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
ATS
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
TTL
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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