Home / NHL Projections NHL / Kings @ Lightning LA @ TB

LOS ANGELES

KINGSLA

14-10-9  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Dec 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

18-12-3  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Anton Forsberg
GOALTENDER

Anton Forsberg

#31 | Goaltender
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Anton Forsberg None-None 1.00 0.969 --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 2.10 0.900 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 Ldr GAA 2.10
0.969 Ldr Save % 0.900
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
KINGS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
KingsLA (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

LA By 1 goal

12.1%

LA By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
LOS ANGELES
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
2
LOS ANGELES
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 1, 2026 TB @ LA 5 - 3
Dec 18, 2025 LA @ TB 2 - 1
Jan 30, 2025 LA @ TB 0 - 3
Jan 4, 2025 TB @ LA 1 - 2
Mar 23, 2024 TB @ LA 3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +31.9% more
Tampa Bay: 25.2 vs Los Angeles: 19.1
Shots on Goal (L5) +13.7% more
Tampa Bay: 30.9 vs Los Angeles: 27.2
Blocked Shots (L5) +43.3% more
Los Angeles: 15.0 vs Tampa Bay: 8.5
Faceoff % (L5) +2.4%
Los Angeles: 51.6% vs Tampa Bay: 49.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LA Score 3.0 2
TB Score 4.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 8.5 / 15.0 7.0 / 22.0
Faceoff % 49.2 / 51.6 54.7 / 45.3
Hits 25.2 / 19.1 18.0 / 17.0
Power Play % 20.3 / 20.2 20.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 30.9 / 27.2 32.0 / 20.0
Takeaways 4.7 / 4.8 2.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
25%MONEY75%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
LA
TB
LA
ML
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
TTL
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
100% 3-0
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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