Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Fighting Hawks WIN @ UND

WINTHROP

EAGLESWIN

7-5  |  Road

88
FINAL
Thu, Dec 18 • 8:00 PM ET
Betty Engelstad Sioux Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

4-9  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
📊
FIGHTING HAWKS
100%
EAGLES --
FIGHTING HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
81.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
WINTHROP
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Winthrop)
EaglesWIN (-3.5) 0 Fighting HawksUND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

81.6%

Fighting Hawks Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WIN -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIN)

WIN By 1-7 points

24.3%

WIN By 8-14 points

26.8%

UND By 1-7 points

12.2%

UND By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
45
WINTHROP
36
NORTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
70
WINTHROP
75
NORTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Hawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Eagles (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Fighting Hawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 81.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 18, 2025 WIN @ UND 88 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +33.5% more
Winthrop: 17.8 vs North Dakota: 11.9
Rebounding (L5) +21.4% more
Winthrop: 47.9 vs North Dakota: 37.6
Blocks (L5) +18.0% more
Winthrop: 5.6 vs North Dakota: 4.6
Steals (L5) +10.0% more
Winthrop: 10.0 vs North Dakota: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIN Score 45.0 88
UND Score 36.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.3 / 33.9 39.0 / 50.0
Assists 11.9 / 17.8 12.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.6 / 5.6 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 40.8 / 49.2 44.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 71.5 / 78.5 72.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 47.9 38.0 / 33.0
Steals 9.0 / 10.0 5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 14.0 / 12.2 7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIN Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
UND
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIN
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
WIN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UND
WIN
UND
WIN
ML
44% 15-19
70% 23-10
50% 17-17
79% 26-7
ATS
50% 17-17
79% 26-7
50% 17-17
79% 26-7
TTL
65% 22-12
58% 19-14
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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